This Christmas my brother-in-law gave me a book: The Pessimists Guide to History. His wife gave me a coaster that reads:
WHAT IF THE HOKEY POKEY REALLY IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT
That's funny.
Now, most people see pessimism in a universally negative way. But I don't. There is, to my mind, good and bad pessimism. Or at least good and bad aspects of a basic inclination toward pessimism.
Bad pessimism is that burdensome negative attitude that things will eventually go bad. It can be a weight that drags you inexorably toward defeat. And that is not a good or healthy thing for sure.
Good pessimism, on the other hand, is more like a general comfort with the realization that success is not guaranteed and things may not always follow the path (optimistic or otherwise) that you imagine.
Pessimism doesn't always express a capitulation to some inevitably negative outcome. It can simply express the fact that the mind is on its toes and ready.
The conscious recognition of uncertainty is an important aspect of agility. In this sense, it can actually be a catalyst for fruitful exploration and growth.
The word "science" derives from the Latin verb scire, which means "to know." But the actual word comes from the present participle, sciens, which means "knowing."
There is good deal of uncertainty (and pessimism) implied in that derivation. It is not "known" it is "knowing."
It suggests that there is more to know, which makes a good deal of sense when you look at the evolutionary nature of scientific knowledge (or any knowledge really).
It's not uncommon for a scientist to express some degree of uncertainty because the whole craft is about the gradual accretion of understanding… it is a process of knowing.
If you want to look at it another way, science, like nearly all human enterprises, involves some process of being increasingly less wrong.
In the sense I see it, some degree of pessimism, some recognition of your wrongness, results in a healthy state where you are still open to and searching for greater and deeper understanding.
A healthy pessimism also might just keep you somewhat free from Confirmation Bias and help you stay open to the evidence you might otherwise dismiss because it undermines the desired optimistic outcome.
All that to say, optimism is almost universally valued.
As Mr. Kahneman asserts in Thinking, Fast and Slow: "If you were allowed one wish for your child, seriously consider wishing him or her optimism." Optimists generally end up happy, popular, resilient, and healthy.
Not a bad existence for sure.
But... just as there is good an bad facets of pessimism, there is likely good and bad expressions of the optimistic temperament.
One of those is this optimistic bias described by Mr. Kahneman:
Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be. He goes on to assert: "In terms of consequences for decisions, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases."
So... optimism, especially in the absence of some outside-in circumspection, is not always great. It can lead to a some pretty unfortunate outcomes as you go smiling toward disaster.
There is clearly a tendency toward absolute optimism in the business world.
It probably has something to do with the fact that people generally feel there is little value in shining a light on their uncertainty and appearing to equivocate. Nobody wants to be seen as uncertain, unsure, lacking confidence, and weak.
That seems dumb to me.
People also want to appear unfailingly positive... optimism is all about expressing a belief in positive outcomes. Everyone wants to win. No one wants to be the one talking about the possibilities of losing or appear to even entertain defeat.
That makes some sense to me given the reciprocal priming effect. Positive thinking never hurts and no one wants you pointing out things that might undermine that positivity.
But... like I said... most of our endeavors are really a gradual march toward a more complete state of correctness. And that march can only go so long on the fuel of optimism. You simply have to give up some amount of optimism and leverage some pessimism if you want to enjoy a kind of perpetual growth.
Perhaps it is best to be pessimistically optimistic.